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- Hacker News
- This is about China. The timing of this article coming out during the Trump-China summit is no accident. The article beat around the bush (pun intended) that the real issue here is that China stopped buying (or seriously cut back) US agricultural products (particularly soy) because of tariffs imposed on China last year that got to over 100% at one point. China now buys significantly more soy from Argentina instead.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is another big factor here as fertilizer prices have massively gone up. Diesel is more expensive too. Many crops this planting season (in the northern hemisphere) haven't been fertilized like they would normally and it's too late now so that will absolutely impact food prices later this year. The Global South will be disproportionately affected.
Lastly, the continued Russia-Ukraine war continues to impact Ukraine's wheat crops. Ukraine is (or was?) often called the "bread basket of Europe" because it was such a significant wheat grower and exporter.
We (the world) are genuinely going to have much more expensive food prices later this year and, in some places, there will be genuine famine.
by jmyeet - You are mostly correct, but note that China has resumed buying US soy beans in the past few months.by bluGill
- The big reason china reduced its purchases of soy wasnt the tariffs though.
the prior high purchases were to refill their reserve after covid lockdowns broke supply changes. now its about full again, so they only need the steady state supply
by 8note - > This is about China.
From what your saying it sounds more about Tariffs
by alt227 - IDK how many people in China are laser focused on agweb.com for their geopolitical negotiations.
The data comes from USDA's WASDE report which is released every month, between the 8th and 12th. There is no "timing," and people were talking about the expect wheat harvest this season for weeks ahead of Tue's report anyway
by CGMthrowaway - Several European economists I follow on YT suggest Americans and Asians should prep now for a temporary food supply chain shortage, famine, and/or collapse resulting from the knock-on effects of petroleum and urea market disruptions.
- I live in the middle of nowhere. The farmers here wheat crop failed last year, and DOGE prevented their insurance claims. They chose to grow oats this year because it's safer for them without the insurance backstop.by _DeadFred_
- They voted for this, but everyone suffers, just like they wanted
- America was great in 1972 so this is just more evidence America has become great again . Congratulations:)by bamboozled
- “Dictators stay in power until there are food riots” is what every sociologist I know tells me.
I hope the “riots” are in the form of voting.
by YesThatTom2 - I've always wondered why we consider it ok when an illegitimate, unjust, or unhinged government uses violence, but not when people on the right side of history? Like yeah don't go smash up small businesses and murder innocent bystanders. But if Trump refuses to leave at the end of his term, I hope someone has the courage to use minimum required violence to remove him.by maerF0x0
- This book discuses why regimes are stable. Notably starving disconnected illiterate peoples rarely change things without military cooperation.
"The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith)
https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...
The CGP Grey youtube short is an entertaining summary of the books subjects:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs
>in the form of voting.
The current US representatives were voted into, out-of, and back into power.
It is interesting, but will likely remain stable. =3
by Joel_Mckay - If you enjoy pistachios, eat eat them this year, because you wont see them next year. California produces 70% of global supply and an indian summer this year ruined the crop. Many farmers aren't even planning to harvest.
20% of the remaining global supply comes from Iran, which has its own issues of drought and war.
- my costco pistachios were grown in turkiye?by 8note
- My fault: last weekend I told my wife during a discussion of climate change "hey, at least we don't have to worry that the rains won't come and the crops will fail."by lukasb
- It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.by giantg2
- we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI.
edit: cloud seeding too.
by dakolli - Is anyone actually irrigating wheat??
Edit: I'm being downvoted because someone found a source that says 3% of winter wheat in Montana is irrigated.
My point still stands, while yes some percentage of wheat is irrigated it is extremely uncommon.
by mikey_p - Yes - but at current rates, it won't take anything like an actual generation to get substantially worse.by bell-cot
- Same region all the new data centers are being built. Unfortunately, humans can't eat data like they can wheat.by evanjrowley
- "All the new data centers" are being built everywhere.by Jgrubb
- This doesn't have anything to do with data centres.by Pay08
- Shark attacks increase relative to ice cream sales. Unless you have some theory that correlates the two, that you're willing to share, we shouldn't entertain this.by phendrenad2
- You can eat soybeans, though, which are seeing record production thanks to it supplanting what is affectionately known in agriculture circles as poverty grass.by 9rx
- DNA is technically data, right?by RiverCrochet
- Wheat, being basically worthless, is predominantly not irrigated. A data center that draws water from a river or aquifer is not a rival to wheat, which relies on rain. When farmers have invested in irrigation they largely grow something else that's worth actual money.by jeffbee
- Western hay prices are as much as double what they were last year for feed: https://www.reddit.com/r/homestead/comments/1ta64d0/breaking...
- When I read this thread, "Interstellar" immediately comes to mind.
Thanks for sharing!
by qrios - I'd take that source with a grain of salt.
The website's domain was created 3 months ago (site doesn't even have any entries in the wayback machine) and supposedly pulls from USDA AMS data but when I looked at reports[1][2] I didn't see double prices compared to last year.
Some prices even looked lower? But it was hard to make comparisons because of report structure and data disparity.
[1] CA Hay: https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2904
[2] CO Hay: https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2905
by Brybry - > growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat
It's not the drought per se, it's input costs. Farmers are favouring crops that need less nitrogen and potassium.
Commodities have responded accordingly.
by btbuildem