Join the discussion
Write your take first — we'll ask for email only when you're ready to publish.
- Hacker News
- Many have theorized this. But i wouldn't bet money on it, the timing is just too unpredictable IMO.by rowbin
- Betting against deep learning has been a losing game over the past 5 years.
As long as the models keep getting better, you will keep losing betting against them.
- AFAIK Michael Burry is shorting it via PUT options — can look into what he is doing.by da-x
- Did this research last week on the same thing:
NVIDIA (NVDA) — The Short / Underperformance Thesis - https://nvidia-stock-analysis.pagey.site/
This is pump and dump on the largest scale we have ever seen. It's effectively privatize the profits and socialize the losses.
by freakynit - Instead od shorting NVIDIA, why not invest in stocks that would benefit from AI failures? Or diversify by investing in AI competitors, such as Alphabet (vertical integration with TPUs).by giantg2
- A related question might be whether anyone is seriously preparing for whatever opportunities present themselves after the bubble bursts.
For example, after the dot com bust, there was plenty of money to be made in aggregating bankrupt or underutilised telecoms assets - endless duct shares, dark fibre, and networking kit which could turn a profit if bought cheaply enough in a fire sale.
Is anyone preparing to bid pennies on the dollar for bankrupt AI datacentres? I can see how it might potentially make sense to do so in places like the EU or UK where increasing data sovereignty concerns might make locally-based small/mid-scale private inference an attractive proposition if the capital costs are low enough.
by roryirvine - Who replaces Nvidia? That's the 5 trillion dollar question, and nobody has stepped forward to answer it.
The closest the industry came to replacing CUDA was with Khronos and OpenCL, but that ship has sailed. CDNA, Apple Silicon, Intel Inside, none of them are trying to take Nvidia's crown. The niche for HPC will exist, and Nvidia continues to serve the niche while others turn up their nose.
For my money, shorting Nvidia is like betting on Glass Joe to beat Mike Tyson. There's going to be incredible cloud spend on unglamorous stuff like defense and automated computer vision, and that will keep Nvidia's demand afloat even at a wild valuation.
by bigyabai - While shorting can work for some people, I believe people who actually understand the underlying technology and are actually smart can make way more money riding the wave.
I don't mean just with stocks or in the market.
If truly know what's going on behind the scenes both technically and professionally, you'll know how to fully milk this super-trend.
The fact its a bubble or the spend is circular is besides the point, if you really know what you're doing, are in the right location, have access to the right people, making millions or billions is difficult but very much possible.
by karakoram