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  • Hacker News
  • cut ties with israel at this point?
  • Art of the Deal sigh
  • Iran has figured out it can make the US president look like an idiot over and over at relatively low cost to themselves, since they're already so thoroughly excluded from the rest of the world.
  • Iran or Israel?
  • I don’t think it’s that. I think Trump and the US could simply use brute force to stop Iran’s attacks, control the strait, and replace the Islamic fundamentalist regime. If they wanted to.

    But that’s not profitable to Trump and his family and friends and donors. By making announcements and deals and truces all the time, they can make trades anticipating each dishonest announcement. And that makes them incredibly rich and powerful.

    Trump doesn’t care if anyone thinks he’s an idiot. He’s actually doing quite well if you consider the goal to be selfish corruption.

  • Iran is Lucy, Trump is Charlie Brown, and the Straight of Hormuz is the football
  • The real question is why does this make Grump look like an idiot any more than the numerous other idiotic things he's already done.
  • Well you can definitely crack Donald Trump's image but when it comes to the loss, most of the loss will be borne by common people. Oil prices will once again rise markets once again fall and AI is already taking jobs. Inflation will rise along with unemployment and bad times are coming. This is happening mostly because of the foolishness of Trump.
  • I think it is about making US pressure Israel and eventually rupturing that relationship.

    Meanwhile, Israel is trying to sabotage the peace process and dont care about that relationship.

  • Oh I think he manages to look like an idiot without external help...
  • It was astonishing to see the praise heaped on Trump by Israeli citizens and leaders, who believed he was their savior. I wonder if it's going to change now, not because he's giving up on them (which he seems to), but because they have nobody else left to rely on. Constant incoming ass kissing is effective when it comes to him, so their best strategy might be to keep going until he changes his mind again.
  • Israeli trust in Trump has already plummeted[1].

    [1]: https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-71-of-israelis-dont-trust...

  • It is closed! Open! Closed! Open! Closed!

    We are negotiating! We dont! We do! We dont! We on the plane! We are not!

  • Everything is going to plan! Protect the precious bodily fluids.
  • So Iran can shield Hezbollah and other allies/proxies via its stranglehold on the strait. This is quite the shift.
  • Iran’s perspective seems to be that their sovereignty will continue to be threatened by Israel if the US doesn’t start using its considerable amount of leverage over Israel to force them to stand down. I’m not sure how likely this would be, but Trump said that the US would start facing drastic fuel shortages and enter a recession in the next few weeks if he didn’t sign off on the MOU (which seems like a dumb thing to say while negotiations are ongoing but whatever), so it seems like Iran has a lot of power here. Ultimately, I think Trump and Netanyahu’s decision to start this war may result in the largest shift in the Middle Eastern power balance since the post-World War II period.
  • The question ultimately becomes "How much pain is Trump willing to let the US bear on the behalf of Israel?"

    But in general, the answer(and not just for reasons of Israel, but his own fragile ego) is "quite a lot".

  • Trump agreed to the MoU saying it's allies would stop attacks, including in Lebanon. Israel continues to bomb it. It's up to Trump to put pressure on Israel to stop in order to make good on his deal. It's no surprise this is instantly falling apart - Trump promised something he couldn't deliver. We can only hope that he does eventually put enough pressure on Israel to stop.
  • If anything, Israel is increasing its attacks on Lebanon. Ben-Gvir is making on the record comments like "For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep. All of Lebanon must burn."

    Israel absolutely seems to be taking full advantage of Trump to play utter brinkmanship.

    Source: https://thecongressionalinsider.com/how-one-statement-escala...

  • The P5+1, while quite imperfect so was preferable to the current situation that's almost unbelievable. This whole invasion has been a deeply stupid move on the part of the US.