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- Hacker News
- I 100% think you are going to harvest these decisions to train an ML model to do the inverse.by FajitaNachos
- It’s a fun game and it throws funny shade for getting the answers wrong, but who would have guessed and sized these answers right based on this sparse data without any additional context? There’s barely enough data in the charts to do TA properly.by gizajob
- If I was going to add 3 more indicators, what should they be? And/or more history?by will_asouka
- Needs a way to copy and paste text to share with friends. I feel like this is what made wordle viralby sand500
- The config is currently if you're on desktop, you get text copied to the clipboard. On mobile, you get text + an image to share. Sharing points are 'Challenge a friend' and 'Share result' on the Performance Review, or you can share your career card from the Career Record. I added the image to the mobile shares as early users were screenshotting for x eg https://x.com/investingidiocy/status/2075471303809659212by will_asouka
- Technical analysis is astrology for boys.by xnx
- I call it money-astrology.by buredoranna
- If a big enough proportion of the market is also following the same technical analysis strategies as you, it will predict the market. There doesn't have to be anything actually correct about the analysis.
In reality I don't think a big enough proportion of investors are reading tea leaves for this to be true.
by p1necone - Thinking there are straightforward, simple algorithmic strategies to beat the market requires one to also believe that the billions of dollars behind large investments for some reason doesn’t care about using these same strategies to make money.
“They have different goals”, I hear. Literally nobody’s investment strategy involves passing up above-average returns for low risk.
by stouset - To me the description was very clear, the game is fun to play. Would love to see the "prediction" of a LLM in the stats after playing
- Nice idea, maybe when there's enough traction for weighted scoreboards I could enter some modelsby will_asouka
- Oh boy, I know more than a few guys who will get a kick out of this, hahby WarmWash
- Appreciate you spreading the word, thanksby will_asouka
- From a very non altruistic point of view part of me wants to encourage thisby intheitmines
- I ended up generating alpha so this is clearly a great game and I'm a genius investor (compared to random monkeys). When I lose it all tomorrow, my opinion may of course change.
Seriously though, this is a clever idea and I'm interested to see if I can consistently beat the monkeys. Time will tell! Thank you for sharing!
by carbonguy - Love how you implement bet sizing, this is a signature of professional traders. How did you come up with the idea?
You mentioned stocks are "seeded random draw", but professionals don't trade random stocks - there is no edge there, price movements are mostly noise. You want stocks-in-play, stocks with heightened interest from investors on that day.
My suggestion is to manually pick interesting stocks each day and ask players what happens next. Don't hide names, so that players can asses market strength and group strength - 75% of success comes from these factors, and only 25% from individual stock selection.
by spizder - Thanks. My original idea was some kind of 'Duolingo for TA'. Your suggestion would definitely be very relevant to a less gamey, more serious product. great thought.by will_asouka
- Thanks for posting. It's an interesting concept, but needs some work in my opinion.
First, that chart is super zoomed in. You can't zoom out or switch timeframes. You're not told how many bars you need to predict. You're not told the dates or what the stock is.
Not much you can see there other than a handful of candles, that's doesn't really tell you much.
If the stock and dates are a secret so people don't cheat, I don't see why. People can cheat on Wordle or Worldle, and they're still fun to play. But here you're basically just guessing, you have so little information it's basically a coin flip.
by fomoz - > Read the Tape gives players the same 5 S&P500 stock charts per day to predict. You select low, medium or high confidence and then call the chart UP or DOWN. It's a 1d chart which then resolves over 5 days. Alpha is scored against the Monkey Index, a basket of 11 random coin flips at low confidence which provides a tangible win/lose condition.
Your description here and on the website is not clear to me about what I am predicting. Am I predicting whether the stock is going to continue to go up the same day? Is the chart of one day and I am predicting whether it will go up or down the next day? In my opinion, you need to get the explanation of what I'm looking at and the directions of what I am predicting down to one clear sentence.
by WoodenChair - Yes I think you're right, it's unclear. I'm hopeful the first reveal explains the dynamic as the player goes. Maybe something like- each chart shows 60 daily candles of a real S&P 500 stock, a past window with the ticker and dates hidden, you call if the stock closes higher or lower 5 days later?by will_asouka
- This is fascinating.
That said, if it's possible to do better than random guessing, then does this reflect the fact that the five charts are presumably hand-selected to be "interesting"?
My naive guess, and I'd be very curious to learn if this were wrong, is that something very close to the efficient market hypothesis is true; that, if it were possible to beat the monkeys on randomly chosen stocks on random dates, then someone would have figured this out already and deployed bots to capture whatever profits are available.
by impendia - They're from a seeded random draw. Random S&P 500 stock, random 60-day window that's at least 12 months old, every player gets identical charts. Gemini writes the narrative vignette.
Your instinct is pretty spot on. 6,000+ calls in: players state ~74% average confidence but hit ~54%, and accuracy is basically flat across confidence brackets. Up only strategy quietly beats the coin flipping monkeys but players call down 43% of the time.
by will_asouka - The interesting answer by the author, will_asouka, has been marked 'dead' for some inscrutable reason.by mdemare
- > That said, if it's possible to do better than random guessing
Yes - by always picking Up.
Random stock on a random day has 53-55% chance of closing higher. Over 5 days, you will be right ~60%
1996–2016: 53.3% of days were positive. 2016–2021: 54.9% of days saw gains.
by spizder