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- Back in the day when I played HU Hyper-Turbos on Pokerstars I created one of these in Mathematica (not as fancy with Monte-Carlo)by nemesis17
- In case the author is here:
What's the difference between "win probability of win" and "odds", please? The seem the same thing to me.
And also, what are "decimal" vs. "american" odds, please?
Thanks.
- the first lesson here is that betting is easy when you believe that you know the important variable, your edge.
the second lesson is that, no matter how poorly you perform, you are going to be able to make the case to your stakeholders that, contrary to all evidence, you do in fact have an edge and you are in fact exploiting it correctly.
the lesson not here is that, in practice, continuing to believe that you know your edge is going to be virtually impossible in the long run, partly because of volatility, but mostly because, in practice, you do not know it.
by dnnehgf - What bet you can make consistently gives you at least 51% odds? As far as I know, the best you can do in a casino is 48%. If I plug 48% into the simulation, it states there is no Kelly edge for that bet.by butlike
- A similar calculator created many years ago is at https://www.albionresearch.com/tools/kellyby g8oz
- Kelly is nice if you know the odds.by forinti
- Interesting, I recently learned about this.
So there is a term called "Full Kelly" which is were you actually wager the amount given by the formula. This is pretty aggressive and not for the faint of heart. Usually, you do something like a "half Kelly" where you halve the suggested bet amount. Usually because you assume you might be incorrect in your estimated advantage.
What I haven't found yet is some mental math rule to apply this. Given some assumed advantage, what percentage should I "wager"?
- I made a 'game' to help me son get some intuition for bet sizing: https://tools.encona.com/investor