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  • Hacker News
  • Some nice posts about his prediction on Jeremy Keith's blog:

    https://adactio.com/journal/tags/longbets

    by phil-pickering
  • Amazing that Disqus comments are still live for this page. More impressive even than the website itself being live.
    by vvoyer
  • One thing I've done is include my redirect rules with the web application. So my links continue to work even when I change them and forget them.

    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46139686

    by firefoxd
  • At a certain bet size it would almost be self-fulfilling, heh, as one side would be very incentivized to keep at least that url working (buying the domain + hosting it if the page were to die)
    by matsemann
  • I'm not sure how it played out in 2011, but as of now it looks like the win condition hinges on the redirect.

    For the heck of it I confirmed "http://www.longbets.org/601" does in fact result in a 301 redirect to "https://longbets.org/601/". I suspected they might have used a 302.

    by mike_d
  • > entering the characters http://www.longbets.org/601 into the address bar of a web browser or command line tool (like curl)

    The part of this that's most likely to fail at some point is the "http://".

    by JoshTriplett
  • It's worth noting that some prediction URLs, for instance: https://longbets.org/6/ are offline.

    The original long bet was whether or not computers could pass the turing test by 2029: https://longbets.org/1/

    You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities.

    https://longbets.org/9/ is another interesting one depending on whether you think covid leaked from a lab or not.

    by CSMastermind
  • It is actually pretty easy to keep alive URLs if there is a will to do so. Just have tests in place so you can't mess them up accidentally. And convert things that are not changing anymore to static html.

    One of my first web projects involved a music forum and I have been keeping the URLs alive for 24 years now:

    https://www.gnoosic.com/discussion/

    I feel like I owe it to the people who participated to keep it online forever. Also as a document of history.

    by mg

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