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- Hacker News
- The US is going the way of Zaire.
- If only it could get fucked in isolation like that country. It's basically Rome and the whole planet is its empire, whatever happens the shockwaves affect everyone on the planet.by netsharc
- Another wave of inflation is coming in the next 6 months or what?by storus
- > Another wave of inflation is coming in the next 6 months or what?
No, at least according to Treasury buyers [1].
- Hear that? It’s the sound of an empire collapsing.by rbanffy
- Entire global society collapse is probably less than 25 years away due to climate change spiraling out of control. Relative to that the US national debt hardly even matters.
- Did it collapse in 2001?
- Great economy you got there. Couldn't bribe Japan to not sell off their US Bonds and now they need to attract bag holders by raising rates.
- I dunno, guys, maybe hiring a guy who bankrupted 4 casinos wasn't the right way to go after allby CamperBob2
- I fully support blaming Orange Foolius for, well, everything. But hasn't every administration since Reagan contributed to this?by jimt1234
- Hey, he's a businessman! He extracts value for shareholders!by lubujackson
- It feels weird to focus on US debt here when the entire west is facing similar challenges (except Switzerland…)
The UK bonds are the highest since the 90s and Japanese debt has never been higher.
There is a fiscal problem but it’s not an _American_ one unless you just assume all international finance is a US issue.
by kasey_junk - > unless you just assume all international finance is a US issue
Why wouldn't you? 2008's collapse of the US housing market caused a global recession. It's the single largest economy on the planet.
by ceejayoz - What's really interesting is where exactly the debt is going.
If the US were funneling money into long-term programs designed to improve the country and its residents' lives and/or earn some return on investment, that would be one thing.
Instead, it seems focused on continually increasing military spending (to little effect - see: Straight of Hormuz) and reducing the proportion of the tax revenues coming from its wealthiest individuals while taking a chainsaw to programs helping the poorest without any significant savings to show for it.
You couldn't do a worse job if you were following step-by-step instructions by an adversary for sabotaging the country from within.
by atmavatar - Treasuries are priced alongside term SOFR at one year [1][2]. The cost to insure U.S. debt is in line with where it's been for the last five years [3]. (And around where they were ten years ago.)
This has nothing to do with investors' perceptions of U.S. credit and everything to do with the financial rates environment.
[1] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/...
[2] https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/cme-term-sofr...
- > This has nothing to do with investors' perceptions of U.S. credit and everything to do with the financial rates environment
It absolutely is related to investors' perceptions of U.S. credit worthiness. The news is about the 13th of August 2026 auction.
Entities lending money to US want increasingly higher compensation, which is unsurprising considering that the US projected deficits are ballooning (an estimated 7.4% both in 2026 and 27). US has already blown past 1.8T in deficit in the first 6 months of 2026 alone. That's higher than the deficit for the entirety of 2025.
Finding money to absorb all this spending is not easy and lenders are spooked by inflation and borrowing levels.
by epolanski - earlier this year the fed quietly ended QT and began "reserve management" so they're buying the front end and letting the long end do its thing.
then in steps kevin warsh... historical backdrop: warsh resigned from the fed in 2011 because the fed owned too many assets. since then the fed bought 4 trillion more more than doubling the size of the fed balance sheet
warsh wants to shrink the balance sheet. only way to do that is to buy less treasuries, but the only reason 30 year mortgage isn't >15% is because the fed is the biggest buyer of long dated treasuries and mortgage backed securities (as in MBS i.e. the paper not the prince) since 2009...
so if warsh gets what he wants the long end is guaranteed to spike
then you add in the executive branch trying to to re-engineer the current account balance w the mar-a-lago accord and the correct reaction is not "wow rates are high" its "wow its kind of amazing rates are as low as they are in the long end", especially with the private markets gulping down as much gpu collateralized debt as it can without dislocating a jaw...