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- Hacker News
- It's rising because the market expects interest rate hikes. Long-term bonds are basically a prediction market for future interest rates.by mono442
- You have that backwards. The market sets the long end of the curve via supply and demand,the Fed controls the short end of the curve (federal funds rate)
If the Fed hiked the (short-term) FFR, long term inflation expectations would go down, along with the yield of long duration Treasury bonds.
- Investing in long term bond == expected interest rate hikes?
- 30y is keyed to inflation expectations.
If fed hiked to 5% tomorrow, 30y would invert and yield would go down.
It's not as simple as hikes lead to higher 30y yields.
by adam_arthur - The 30 year isn’t as affected by interest rate hikes unless the market is signaling it sees long term inflation despite interest rate hikes.
The 30 year should reflect more fundamental issues.
by adjejmxbdjdn - "People are worried about America's solvency" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49329347by root-parent
- The whole world is insolvent