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  • negative sentiment towards AI and data centers will be listed as a risk factor

    The fact that the technology can "hallucinate" and is unreliable is not just a "sentiment" --- it is a well established fact. And it is more than a risk, it is virtually guaranteed to happen if you use it repeatedly.

    Calling it "sentiment" is like an "alternative fact".

  • its a bit sad that the public can't grasp tools that have high variance but still end up being useful. lots of things in real life follow the same pattern yet when it comes to AI..
  • ...what? I don't think they're talking about hallucinations here, they're talking about public opinion.
  • Not sure what you are talking about. The negative sentiment isn't about hallucinations, it is about job replacement and high electricity cost.
  • I said it [1][2] when OpenAI was supposed to go public "next week" and I'll say it again today: neither Antropic nor OpenAI are going public in the coming few years.

    The moment they go public is the moment the music stops and everyone who still has their head in the sand realizes that they now can't deny there's no money to make in selling AI models, only money to lose.

    [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48211272

    [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48358945

  • I rather think OpenAI will never get there.

    I think the AI industry desperately needs one of the two to get to IPO for its own sense of identity, though; the morale boost and the presumption of validation are crucial at this point.

    I think it’s possible that the remaining power of the delusion gets Anthropic to IPO.

    by dofm
  • It all implodes once they can't afford to lock up all the RAM and SSD, and/or when the reduced resources environment(private/China) models get good enough to negate frontier lead / become equivalent (almost there)
  • ++

    I don't know if they will never go public,but their business is clearly not profitable as it is today.

    I'm a heavy user but the moment they stop subsidizing I will pick something else because I know how damn expensive it actually is (my usage is ~4k usd/month, but paying 200 in their max plan).

    I guess lot of people will do the same.

  • Anthropic is absolutely going public now that Leopold got taken for a ride and the market is back at its very tip top. There is no other option at this point. It is imminent.

    What you get wrong is who the music stops for. It stops for us (retail). They dump their bags and consolidate into a more manageable business in the long run. S&P drops 10% and life moves on in a few years.

    I think you’re right about OpenAI though. They got outplayed at every step and wont go public.

  • The risk is that we rise up and violently lynch the elites when they try to implement autonomous AI mass surveillance backed by an army of robots to quell the growing unrest of unemployed "useless eaters".

    It's a big risk and the only ways to mitigate it are either:

    a) build the dystopian system quickly and violently killing all dissenters on sight

    b) build a utopian system where robots build our houses, grow our food and serve us 24/7

    Just a hunch they'll try option A.

  • Socialism or Barbarism! - Rosa Luxemburg
  • How about

    scenario c) Mass surveillance is used to reduce crime in high crime areas usually ignored by police, and public safety is provided to all citizens, even the poor and working class?

    How about the army of robots helps to clean the streets, provide services to the poor and working classes, and provide high quality low cost housing, clean water, and livable cities?

  • I would think profitability would be the biggest risk factor
  • The bigger risk is going to be the fundamental inability to meet their buildout commitments. There’s not enough money in the world.
  • Interesting how that whole conversation about "AGI tomorrow" completely disappeared and it's all about making money now.

    I'm a fan of claude and I have been using their top tier plans because it's so damn cheap comparing to my real usage. They will have to stop subsidizing this at some point, and people (include me) will flee. What they are gonna do?

    Interesting times we live in.

  • Sam Altman being like "AGI in <6 months/8 months/2023/2024/2025/2026>" is just sad to listen to now. They don't have it, and never will.
  • This is a non-story; for those who haven’t read them, prospectuses include every potential risk under the sun. There will be risks that never make the news alongside the exciting backlash.
  • Well there is a story, and the story is we are going to have an Anthropic IPO? Believe it when I see it...
  • One risk they should include is: Our vision is working on a product and business model, that if we succeed, will make our business model and product obsolete.
  • “Everyone hates us and the very fundamentals of what we are promising, will fight to prevent us establishing infrastructure, may pass laws to limit our activities in their states, and will extend that hatred to our major investors, potentially materially damaging their businesses” is not a common thing in an IPO prospectus, I imagine, for quite obvious reasons.

    But that is the gist of the situation is it not? If it’s an honest statement, it is going to say something like this.

    Which prospectus got close to anything like this? People hate SpaceX products less.

    by dofm