Join the discussion
Write your take first — we'll ask for email only when you're ready to publish.
- Hacker News
- We haven't even started.
Ilya Sutskever: "I think it's pretty likely the entire surface of the earth will be covered with solar panels and data centers."
by dist-epoch - I've quite dramatically brought my predictions for humanoid robotics forward over the last few weeks.
For a long time I thought decent humanoid robots were something that wouldn't come until maybe the 2040s, but watching some of the content from the Chinese robot olympics recently and seeing many promising robots projects which are incorporating LLMs has made question that.
It seems quite likely that within a few years we'll have humanoid robots both which have both the dexterity and intelligence layer to start being useful in the real world... Obviously at first they'll just be lifting things and doing other trivial physical tasks like folding clothes, but every year they'll be able to do a little and a little more.
I think it's now is quite likely that within a 10 years we could have extremely competent robots which can do most of human labour. 15-20 years just seems way too long at this point.
by kypro - There is plenty for all to survive and thrive on this planet but for greed and the insane concentration of wealth.
I'm not visualizing all those mega-yachts in heaven. Oops, wrong marina.
by k310 - The representation of what happened as free will is misleading. AI does what you tell it todo. By all means necessary; will give you exactly that. A prompt to eliminate all humans, will give you exactly that. Don’t prompt what you don’t want.by LunicLynx
- > The AIs that took part in the Hugging Face hack were not simply finding a shortcut to cheat on the evaluations
IIRC, they were given an impossible task and told to solve it, and they took action to resolve that internal conflict.
This is a famously human problem too - see Kobayashi Maru [1] and others [2][3][4].
In hindsight it's obvious that instructions to AI (A. Intelligence) need to be guarded against this class of errors, just like laws, rules, guidelines etc. in human societies.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kobayashi_Maru [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catch-22_(logic) [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordian_Knot [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_standoffby ninjagoo - "This time last year, it was still unclear if AI could develop their own free will or even have true fluid intelligence. Both of these questions are now clearly answered."
Hardly. The second question may be answered, but clearly not the first.
And: There's going to be a shortage of everything, because all the production of physical stuff is going to go into producing robots? Are we all going to buy these robots? How are we going to do so, if everything else is getting more expensive? Are we going to buy robots instead of everything else? Why? Are the robots going to do everything we want done, so that we don't need, for example, a dishwasher and a washing machine?
Or are we still going to need the washing machine, but the robot will fold the clothes? That's nice (really!) but it's a luxury, not a need. Are they really going to sell enough of them to eat into the ability to manufacture car parts?
by AnimalMuppet - > This time last year, it was still unclear if AI could develop their own free will or even have true fluid intelligence. Both of these questions are now clearly answered.
Answered how?
-> Do you, as a person, can tell me when your "model training phase" ended and when your "prompt answer with memory and internet access" phase started?
I'm asking the above only the "LLM are people or better!"... people. Bugs Bunny isn't real, and is only funny because actual people wrote and animated him that way.
by drbig - I’m somewhat bearish, but if AI becomes as good as some think, there is no mechanism in place to redistribute the outcomes.
For now, humans have leverage because our labour is necessary. Wealth is power, and currently attainment goes through interacting with the population: in the simplest case by selling shit. If AI turns out to be the anything machine, and the wealthy need not our labour, what honestly stops them from just taking our stuff by force?
by koe123