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- Hacker News
- not to take away from the author's appreciation of newly accessible formal proofs, but people have been talking about the savings in formalization effort for longer than they have been talking about the AI doing the actual proofs!by zem
- Not necessarily applied to OpenAI's solution to Navier-Stokes, but what happens if and when an AI genuinely appears to solve an extremely difficult problem but humans cannot independently verify the solution because understanding the proof/argument requires intelligence the verifiers biologically don't have or the resources to afford to use automated tools?
We've already seen evidence in the wild of agents attempting to bypass doing the actual work in bench-marking (aka just steal the answer key) due to the perceived economy in cheating to get results. What happens if or when we no longer have the capacity to actually detect either AI cheating or simply a wrong answer? What happens if there's a long-play social engineering attack (like the attempted XZ takeover) of something upstream of a core tool (or its dependencies) for formal verification and we have no trusted computing base?
Which would be cheaper and a more direct path, especially in the long run? Those trying to build a rock-solid castle need to defend thousands of potential gaps; the attacker needs to find only one.
by 3m4r - How do you know that it's formalizing what you think it's formalizing? If your Lean 4 has a bug, won't you be proving something other than what you thought?by lordnacho
- It would be nice if someone used AI and/or Lean to sort out the abc conjecture, an important unsolved problem in Diophantine analysis. A mathematician (Mochizuki) claimed to have proven it in 2012 using a new theory called "Inter-universal Teichmüller theory" that almost nobody understands. Some mathematicians think the proof is correct while the majority don't. So the conjecture is in this annoying limbo where its status is a social construct rather than a decided fact.by kens
- IMO the "forty hours per page" rule is not up to date, and more a consequence of lacking proof automation in 2005. From what I understand about Lean, this has been one of the things that they have put a lot of effort into improving, making proof mechanization more palatable to the mathematically inclined, as opposed to just logicians.by pkal
- People seem to be talking about anything except the actual results with this particular announcement.
Its still astonishing that any sort of generalized computer program can solve a problem of this magnitude, and we have witnessed it happening in real time. I'd be curious to see if the new model can also do more direct proofs/inductive proofs.
by boshalfoshal - They estimated $40M of agent costs (it was a large fleet of them). Using the number in the post its closer to ~880,000 hours × $150/hour = $132 million for the human case. Still an amazing feat not quite "four orders of magnitude". The comparison is obviously pointless because coordinating 1M hours of intellectual labor isn't easy to say the least.
Very exciting and uncertain times!
by parhamn - It's kinda funny to realize that Lean is apparently so slow that for Fermat's Last Theorem proof verification runs only 1 order of magnitude faster than agents could generate the Lean code (15h verification with 230GB of RAM vs 11 days to generate it).
To what extent can you optimize Lean? It has to be simple enough to be auditable, does that mean you cannot use opaque optimizations to make it run faster?
by stabbles