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- Hacker News
- Because vendor financing in tech to keep a bubble going never ended badly.
Sadly it seems like some haven’t watched the end of the last movie on this subject.
by cmiles8 - It’s Different This Time(tm)by taurath
- Should there be a LIBOR for 1GB VRAM set each morning?by pwillia7
- CME is launching futures contracts for GPU compute: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/power/compute-future...
- Considering that LIBOR was discontinued in 2023 after a scandal of manipulation and fraud, YES! It's back to the future.by morninglight
- by Havoc
- I am a bit confused at people looking at this negatively. If Nvidia believes AI demand is extraordinarily high, and that it requires a large capital outlay to serve that capital, isn't this what they should be doing?by vayup
- Except as time goes on, it becomes cheaper and hardware agnostic. Depreciation for these cards are 2-3 years, but the financing says 4-6. A lot of money is locked up into older, slower tech far longer than usual. Eventually that gets written off as customers can't buy the new stuff unless they do. You know, a pop.
- I called it long ago https://ramansharma.substack.com/p/nvidia-is-the-federal-res...
- The Japanese economy and yen carry trade is a close second.Rising oul prices and reduced output due to the conflicts in the Middle East could filter through to increasing yields on Japanese debt. In turn, the yen interventions have to continue to keep it lower than 160, which seems to be the psychological barrier for the yen carry trade.by treebeard901
- I view the market as celestial objects influencing each other through a lattice similar to spacetime
Everything influences each other with varying gravitational pull
At one point the mental model was more like a web, but spacetime with mass matches the model more closely
by yieldcrv - This is a good headline and point.
Realistically, they're worse than a central bank, because they can't exactly expand supply monotonically like a normal central bank. Nor do they realistically control rates.
by epsteingpt - >Nvidia’s financial engineering is partly a response to its biggest customers’ transformation into rivals. “Hyperscalers”, tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, account for roughly half of Nvidia’s revenue
Companies just don't want to pay Jensen's tax. Hyperscalers might still pay Jensen's tax for LLM training but for inference. you don't have to. they are also betting on their own chip for training to replace Nvidia.
this is Nvidia panicking and doing vendor fiance to Neoclouds and buying Hugging Face. even none hyperscalers like Meta is betting on its own chip for AI inference.
by MangoCoffee - Archive: http://archive.today/kt50Vby tolugenius
- Thank youby alexpadula
- I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.by thrownawaysz
- > I really don't think it's an if question but a when
Nvidia still will ship gaming products. The upcoming RTX Spark laptop APUs are still gaming-capable - we also have Blackwell gaming GPUs and the Nvidia-powered Nintendo Switch 2.
People echoed this sentiment during the crypto mining crunch, and we still got gaming hardware designs after that blew over. One of CUDA's core value props is the consumer market, and Nvidia probably won't surrender it unless hardware becomes unreasonably scarce.
by bigyabai - AMD and Intel would be HAPPY to replace them, and plenty capable.
Game consoles like PS5 have been AMD for a few generations. Steamdeck/Steam Machine are AMD.
But really, Nvidia has no reason to leave gaming behind. They can just start dialing back their ambition on the gaming side and providing GPUs that aren't too useful for inference or training. All gaming needs is stability so that devs can aim for something. Games looked great 20 years ago and they'll look great 20 years from now, as long as developers know what they are building for.
by bentt - A Chinese company like CXMT will surely fill that unaddressed market the way CXMT is doing for memory. It would be rather unwise for nvidia to leave the door to the market open. AMD is positioned well to grow right now due to their non-Apple sillicon unified ram hardware coming soon.by MachineMan
- AAA gaming is cooked, and AMD/Intel is plenty able to support indie to AA needs.by CuriouslyC
- They're advertising DLSS5 just now though.
> I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought
I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Apple TV+ makes for them either but I don't see it be gone anytime soon.
by raincole - Maybe this is silly of me, but maybe gaming would enjoy an era of hardware upgrades being rather unviable so the focus turns to optimization and aesthetic.by Waterluvian
- > Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
It's kind of weird. nVidia kind of has the PC market cornered, but AMD has had the last couple of generations of Xbox and Playstation. Also, they power the Steam Deck/Machine, and Valve has been contributing a lot of AMD graphics features into the Linux drivers. There is a world where AMD (and maybe even Linux on AMD specifically) becomes the de facto standard for gaming.
by pdpi - AMD would step in, they where behind nvidia but they've been closing that gap for a while and the 9070XT is the current value king (in this fucked up market) for mid-high gaming and you can actually buy them.
Demand for Nvidia cards has outstripped supply even on the mid-high cards specifically because they do better with local models than AMD cards with the same VRAM do broadly.
AI has completely broken the PC gaming market (and PC/Laptop market more broadly but gaming is really hit hard because it's the exact components that matter for both that overlap).
Nvidia had the mind share among gamers but so did Intel once, inertia only lasts so long they've been thoroughly intent on burning that to the ground for a while, back to the post 1080's
If RDNA5 is good (and 4 was it closed the gap on RT) they'll been in a solid place to take the spot if Nvidia do cede the ground.
I have a 7900XTX the last flagship card AMD did (about equal to a 9070XT for raster but 24GB VRAM not 16GB) and it has been and is a stellar card for gaming (let down only if you care about RT and the games I play don't have it).
Flawless under Linux, weaker on the AI behind nvidia but it runs Qwen surprisingly well and I didn't and don't care too much about that except to poke it occasionally.
by noir_lord - I've always found it interesting when corporations start acting like public institutions. When traditionally philosophical, social contract ideas apply to things like corporate governance. Or like here, where private structures get powerful and important enough to resemble government structures.
The ideas we deal with when we discuss society and organization aren't exclusive to government, they relate to human nature in general. I wonder if in the future we will have more discussion of power and how to organize it in corporations, similar to what we discuss today about government.
by manlymuppet - Yeah its soooo interesting! Totally not dystopian, just soooo interesting and fascinating to ponder these scenarios in which corporations hold equal power to national governments!
Just such a curious scenario to let your mind wander about, how society would look like in these scenarios!
/s
I'm honestly so sick of the suspense of disbelief on this site, how is this more "interesting" to you, than the absolute sheer terror you should feel about going back to feudalism and serfdom? A typical western national state ensures that you have basic rights as a human being and aren't exploited to the death by non-government entities.
by awesomeMilou - The governments of today weren't formed out of "discussions of power"by ares623
- > I wonder if in the future we will have more discussion of power and how to organize it in corporations, similar to what we discuss today about government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A64rR5Dp07s
"You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale. And I won't have it!
Is that clear?! You think you've merely stopped a business deal. That is not the case. The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back! It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity! It is ecological balance!
Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale?
You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today.
What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state -- Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do."
by nxobject - USA is trying to become corporatocracy
In a country without religion, banner or ideology to unite the people in current-and-coming turbulent times, the bet is made on "unite under money, or have no money left"
the way to fight it is to be principled even in front of cheaper options - and to support others like you
by NooneAtAll3 - Well the key difference making any superficial similarities fall apart is Nvidia does not have neutral economy-wide goals of maintaining small+stable inflation, near-full employment and stabilizing financial institutions like the Fed does. Nvidia is entirely self interested in protecting their own shareholder value (that includes the incestuous web of investments ultimately ending up spent on their GPUs).
The structure of the Fed is setup the way it is to limit the sort of self-serving, myopic political micromanaging that could be damaging to the economy at large. And, unlike a beneficiary of rapid growth like Nvidia, has (historically) tried to identify potential indicators warning of unsustainable bubbles that could lead to financial contagion and tries to mitigate that risk using the limited monetary tools available and their public soapbox.
A similar decision making structure would potentially be very undesirable to Nvidia shareholders as caution over long time horizons would likely produce what they would consider an excessively conservative, defensive strategy to avoid putting too much air into the bubble too quickly (at the expense of their valuation).
by qlte