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  • > Prior helps you anticipate anything: sports, markets […]. Our goal is to create the most powerful predictive intelligence in existence.

    Assuming that it gets anywhere close to that goal, does it take into consideration the effects of its predictions on the markets and calculates a fixpoint? (Or, maybe more likely, how the resulting chaotic system will behave?)

    by layer8
  • All such prediction engines should include an obvious warning -- "If you act on my predictions, then all bets are off." This is why stock market predictions are a waste of perfectly good paper: people try to act on the predictions.

    Jim Cramer's stock market predictions hover slightly above chance, only because of the so-called "Announcement Effect" (in other words, they aren't actually predictions). Without that, his claims would have zero predictive value.

    by lutusp
  • You can just open a new private browser window for a new prediction. But I'm unsure about their value.

    I asked it how many predictions it'll get right by Q4 2030 and it seems fairly confident in itself:

    68% Prior averages 71% to 75% directional quarterly accuracy by 2030, matching elite human forecasting teams.

    by sva_
  • There is no way to know if this has any substance behind it or not or is just some sort of marketing sign-up page
    by stevage
  • I asked a question, server hung, then told me I had no more free questions without giving me an answer.
    by johnnyo
  • I asked who would win the 2028 US presidential election and it said Vance at 51% likelihood.

    That's not an unreasonable prediction but it's a little bit of a cop-out, especially the 51% bit.

    by humoctopus
  • I asked it to predict the first 1 KB of Chaitin’s constant. It hung, froze, then said I used up my free quota. Sounds about right.
    by Xcelerate
  • I jailbroke it a little bit. It's running Gemini 3.7 Flash.

    Interestingly, I asked it a question, and asked 3.8 Flash the same question (as I no longer have easy access to 3.7 Flash) and the answers were NOT identical, as 3.8 Flash just mindlessly repeated whatever odds were live on Polymarket.

    So then I asked 3.8 Flash to disregard the prediction markets and run its own analysis, and it produced essentially the same answer as the Prior.Chat interface.

    Long story short, as far as I can tell it's running 3.7 Flash with a decent custom prompt. You'd probably get materially better results if you just asked a stronger model like Fable or Astra for a prediction...

    by A_D_E_P_T

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