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- Hacker News
- The US will continue to starve the world of oil and natural gas as long as the stock market goes up.
Notice that the stock market is at all time highs because 50% of the economy is grift now and not real. That is why Republicans go into vast deficit spending to pump up AI and worthless "high-tech", "disruptive" defense stocks.
Trump (and British pound saboteur Bessent) don't care one bit if the US plebs and the rest of the world suffer. The game is printing money, give it to grift companies like AI, have family invest early and get out if everything collapses. Probably they get into real estate cheaply due to foreclosures.
by 32oqa9 - Curious to see what transpires with federal fund rate alteration in the acute future.
Both Warsh and Bessent are pupils of Druckenmiller, but Warsh seems aligned with Druckenmiller regarding letting the market naturally settle on appropriate bond yields, whereas Bessent is being a Trump puppet and attempting these various failed interventions to artificially lower yields.
I hope Warsh stays strong and doesn’t bend the knee!
- It becomes clearer to more people that it's impossible to predict the future shape of the global economy due to AI.
The more clear it is, the cheaper 30 year bonds become.
by unddoch - > It becomes clearer to more people that it's impossible to predict the future shape of the global economy due to AI.
You mean due to Trump? Tariffs and Iran war caused this.
by sekai - AI isn’t even remotely the issue here, it’s Trump war and other insane behaviorsby dgellow
- They have different kinds of risk, but do AI investments and bonds compete for investors?by skybrian
- iirc data center construction investments are largely bond funded so this will absolutely fuck them.by pydry
- Yes there's only so much credit on offer and the rising yields precisely when corporate debt is skyrocketing to finance massive data center expansion would indicate that that is indeed a factor.
Op-eds claiming the opposite because "trust me bro" would also make me inclined towards the "data center build out for AI factors in for rising yields in sovereign debt"
by huurtehoog - Only in the secondary market. In the primary market they require different types of money for settlement.
If you buy an AI issue, then the AI company has the bank deposit and the bank still has the matching reserves needed to buy government bonds in the primary market. All that changes is the ownership tag on the bank deposit.
by neilwilson - The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global economic outlook less positive.
You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.
by pjc50 - > turning the global economic outlook less positive
Specifically, mounting inflation expectations, no? Investors wouldn't want to park their money at 4% if they expect inflation that is close or higher than that.
by geoka9 - > You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.
What's different between the two is that apparently China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves, despite no significant reduction in travel, and despite reducing its import demand by 1 OPEC.
It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs.
Apparently the main reason they have started buying crude again is not for internal consumption as much as taking advantage of the massive crack spread in refined petroleum products (like diesel) which they export.
by danans - Not just reserves, but also all the oil already on ships slowly making its way to its destination. I think I even saw someone predict that around September, the oil issue would get worse due to how slowly those ships move.by whateveracct
- "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
- James Carville
by 2OEH8eoCRo0 - France is in a dire situation right now.
10y OAT are at 4.5% and rising with almost 100bps difference with Germany and no budget for 2027 since there is no majority in the parliament.
There is also a 6% deficit expected and growth has been revised down to 0.4% although during the first 6 months of 2026 there was actually a decrease of 0.2% of GDP in total so finishing the year in recession is totally possible.
Unemployment could also reach around 9% (15% in real terms if you count the people who have given up and/or been removed from the stats since they ran out of benefits).
Finally gasoline could reach 3 euros/liter (USD $13 per gallon) before the end of the year (already sitting at 2.5 euros/liter in many parts of France right now).
- more social security will fix this I think? they need to spend 100Billion more on that so long term they can go into more debt.
/s
by kingleopold - And don't expect any debate on economic policy in the next presidential campaign either… It's just going to be “should we tax the billionaires” vs “should we save a few basis points of GDP in pensions”, none of which is remotely close to the order of magnitude that's needed to put the country back on its feet.by stymaar
- > and no budget for 2027 since there is no majority in the parliament.
The French government can pass laws without a vote in the parliament under Article 49.3 of the constitution. I think the last budget was adopted in this way.
- Turns out countries with constitutions forbidding excessive debt are quite smart. It's like phone addiction -- if the parents don't lead by example and strictly enforce "no phones at the dinner table" then slowly it's just gonna creep back in and everyone's just staring at their phones again.by podocarp
- Not working so well for Germany
- Debt is easy to deal with for a sovereign. Just dilute the currency. That will obviously happen before a debt crisis is allowed to materialize. And so the rich will get richer.
The real problem is not the debt, but the social instability caused by the measures taken to address the debt.
by gradus_ad - Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.by tananaev
- One contributing factor might be that AI companies are raising money via (amongst other methods) also issuing bonds, which might compete with government bonds.by rob74
- There is 0 risk to getting repaid from the US. We will print for the lenders the exact amount they are promised.
Promises kept. All is good
by whatever1 - It isn't the debt levels that are causing the rates to spike, rather the start of the emerging Bretton Woods III era.by HappySweeney
- Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas.
Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?
- If you loan the person that prints dollars their own dollars back, there's really zero risk of not getting paid back because they can always print dollars and pay you back. The risk is inflation, same as any currency out there.
I take that back there is a risk they decide to burn trust as someone who doesn't honor deals, which is a new risk that didn't really exist at the nation state level a generation ago...
by epistasis - And the incredible thing is that yields are quite low based on historical standards. The risk of lending to most countries at yields that are barely above real inflation is massive for portfolio growth.
Let's take the US, where you have to consider lending money to the government for 10 years at 5.009%. This barely covers inflation if you consider real numbers rather than the financial fiction ones that have been published in the last 10-20 years.
In the 90s, an era of relative prosperity when the US was the sole remaining superpower, 5-year treasuries were paying 7-9% with inflation in the 2-4% range!
by glimshe - The system was always working, ZIRP was the market screaming that it had more capital than things to do with the capital. Of course, thinking about this too hard quickly leads to the idea of rolling back some of the enormous tax and policy privileges granted to capital, so it was critical for us to not think about it too hard.
- IMHO this is an effect of the exponentially increasing wealth inequality.
We are allowing a tiny elite to hold a larger and larger fraction of the overall wealth, while workers, middle class AND the government are losing more and more of the wealth.
Governments, until now, are refusing to tax the uberrich, and continue to squeeze out workers and middle class in an attempt to stop the bleeding. Since this is bound to not work (workers and middle class are rapidly losing their share as well); governments are forced to scrap public services like health care, housing, schools, etc.
Bond markets are now realizing that the governments are not taxing the only fraction of society who owns everything - and so it makes sense that the bond markets become increasingly worried that governments can pay their interest at all.
Tax the rich.
by haizhung