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- Hacker News
- They should be banning all the financial only/paper traders. If you can’t take delivery you can’t trade.by grebc
- The big commodity traders have no problem with taking delivery. They use storage and shipping as a part of their strategy. They make many billions each year, even more so when there is disruption.by nutjob2
- Why?by xboxnolifes
- The people who take delivery hate that. They want someone else to pay for the oil that isn't in their possession yet. There is a lot of money worth of oil sitting in transport and the people who trade oil are the only ones who want that much money sitting around. (often people play the same market, but they like the separation anyway)by bluGill
- That really makes absolutely no sense. Derivatives whole purpose is to allow people to hedge their exposure to the underlying, in this case oil prices. Many parties active on these markets have such exposure but are unable or unwilling to take delivery as part of that hedging contract..by pipodeclown
- But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.
Yes US produces mostly light crude and production of refined products requires also inputs of heavy one, but it's not produced in the Middle East anyway, so current situation can't impact that, either.
by anovikov - How about the “deal” with Venezuela? When will that impact anything, if ever?by laweijfmvo
- You claim there can't be a shortage, yet the rationing has already started.
https://www.newsweek.com/costco-starts-rationing-motor-oil-w...
by buildsjets - Can't the US producers sell oil outside of the United States, where it's more expensive, thus generating more profits for their shareholders, thus creating a shortage in the United States, thus dragging the prices up to the global equilibrium, thus dissipating any effects of the US producing more oil than it consumes?by sssilver
- Demand is genrally destroyed in places where people can't afford the higher oil price which is most definately not the US. Poor countries are ehere people will suffer.by pipodeclown
- There absolutely can be a price shock that will make current prices look economical. Oil is priced on a global market, and if the price is high enough, that might mean many Americans are priced out of some of their own oil. The only way to decouple the domestic and international markets is export and price controls. One need only look to Canada's NEP of the 80's to understand how that's likely to turn out.
Also, the U.S. is currently prosecuting a trade war against Canada that has, thanks to Trump, become a question of sovereignty for Canadians. The U.S.'s largest source of foreign oil is, potentially, one outburst from Trump away from Canada placing export duties on oil. It has been discussed in Canada, and it's viewed as an extreme option, but an option nonetheless. Trump would have to say or do something truly outrageous for that to happen, but his ability to turn allies into enemies should not be underestimated.
Bottom line, fuel could become a lot more expensive, quickly. Even if there's still gasoline to be had, it still qualifies as a shortage if it becomes unaffordable. Fuel prices affect food production, delivery of goods to markets, and pretty much every aspect of the economy.
Oil tankers travel at about the speed of a bicyle. If a price shock does happen it will last for months. If the war with Iran is not resolved promptly, this is precisely what will happen.
by beloch - Global trade means domestic prices move even when you’re a next exporter of a commodity.by Retric
- Why would any producer in the US sell it locally if they could get more by shipping it?by soperj
- > But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.
It's a global commodity. The reason there likely won't be a shortage in the U.S. has little to do with our production volumes, and has more to do with the fact that we're rich enough to be able to afford the higher prices when many other countries will have to forgeo using oil.
But if we weren't a rich country and we couldn't afford to pay a higher price for oil than many other nations on earth, we would produce and export oil to people that can pay more.
Ireland during the famine produced enough food to feed every person. But much of it was exported to other places, that could afford to pay a higher dollar amount to survive.
by ncallaway - The real question is how quickly demand can be destroyed.
- I am hesitant to ask, and yet morbidly curious what you are gesturing at.
- I'd rather we ask how quickly demand can be transferred to other energy sources, like electricity.by danans
- The amount of times "global commodity" was explained in this comment section was interesting.by Sabinus
- Off-topic: what a well designed infographics. Clean, easy to read, great layout. A very good job!by dgudkov
- Happy we made the switch to all EVs + solar this year. Knock on effects on the economy are going to be brutal though.by indemnity
- I like that no one is immediately jumping on this website for being AI generated.
Of course most of it is, but it looks like the author put some care into this. It doesn't seem like a one off slop from Astra or anything.
Actually my favorite part is on the very bottom. The author attributes Qwen running on his local computer.
"Built with help from a local AI (Qwen 3.8-27b) running on an HP Omen 30L (RTX 3090) in my office."
- I too noticed this and liked it..
This feels more like an "e-bike for the mind" and less of a chauffeur.
by drooby - It's like a catalogue of US misadventures and ego.by CrzyLngPwd
- Can anyone speak to the long term impacts of this? Like is gas going to remain high for years (or even worse get rationed) and I should trade in for an EV now?by bix6
- Long term impact of Iran war is that they expand UAE-Oman pipelines to bypass Hormuz.by lstodd
- I mean the EV is a good choice, but the bigger impact here is that everything gets more expensive due to the increase in costs of shipping, refining, producing, and heating/cooling...
Which often aren't as visible as paying $82.00 to fill up your ICE vehicle, but add up to much more of an impact.
by peezd - The main point of news I heard was that the Iran infrastructure the US destroyed, in a time where they are allowed to repair it and not just get bombed again, will take three years to repair. Oil prices don't get "cheap" again this side of 2030. Not to mention that there is a bunch of Russian infrastructure that is still on the chopping block to be destroyed by Ukraine as that war continues. Which has the same time it takes to rebuild issues.by Fordec
- If you can install a charger at home, get a plug in hybrid at a minimum (if you can afford it). The concept is old enough to support a used market but still pricey.
My mom won't get rid of her 2014 Leaf and won't go back to gas after a recent electric VW pickup. It's the only way to go (if you can afford it).
by selicos - Get the EV. They're better anyway.
- An e-cargo bike is a good/cheaper/additional option if your situation allows it