What do you expect from the next 5 years of AI?

What do you expect from the next 5 years of AI?

4 pointsby msuniverse202619 comments

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  • Hacker News
  • It will tell lies more convincingly.
  • I can't see governments not somehow getting more involved

    I think large amounts of compute are big strategic asset for a country and governments will partner with the labs

  • I think it will become deeply integrated into all spheres of life, and we won’t be able to imagine life without it (just as we can’t imagine life without the internet now). People get used to convenience.
  • Major steps forward come less often, as the low-hanging fruit gets picked and further improvement becomes harder.

    Self-improvement turns out to be mostly a mirage, not a one-way ticket to the promised land.

    Mind you, I'm only 60% convinced of these two predictions.

  • I predict it will be regulated in the west, with approved models only to the public. Corporate and verified individuals only for the high-end level models. Most likely the end of open source competitive models. Not sure what the east will do.
  • The flood of LLM-generated content, code and communications might drown a lot of the things we love in noise. It will slip into every crevice of our existence, and people will adjust their behaviour accordingly.

    Sure, it will make the bullshit part of our jobs more convenient, but for the most part it will just make the bullshitters a lot more prolific. I'm already feeling it.

  • HNers are the last people I'd ask: they're the most cynical group about AI (and technology in general) there is.

    You might as well ask horses in 1908 what they expect from the next 5 years of combustion engines

  • One of my personal “pelican riding a bicycle” tests for an LLM was to prompt for the script of a Seinfeld episode with a contrived plot device. While hilarious, I doubt the rights holders to the Seinfeld franchise would approve of this use case.

    In the next five years, I expect that LLMs will detect and prevent (or charge extra for) even “fair use” of registered copyright, the same way YouTube does today.

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