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  • Timing the market is a bad idea no matter how sensible your reasoning sounds.

    There could be a 15% market dip tomorrow and your investments would still be positive from a year ago.

    There could be a 30% dip (among the top 5-7 market crashes in history) and you'd be set back less than 2 years.

    Everything being said about the economy today was also true last year and the year before that, but holding was still the best decision. Unless you are retiring in the short term (in which case you shouldn't be so deep in the stock market anyways) panic selling is always a terrible move.

    by paxy
  • millions of other people also sold their s&p500 shares on the open market yesterday. who cares?
    by Razele
  • I don't buy that AI is at saturation. From the usage the labs have internally its clear that when cost isn't a constraint they launch 10k agents. I don't see why other companies wouldn't want to do the same
    by Havoc
  • > At the moment, I'm building Star Path.

    > Star Path is an AI guide that uses your astrology birth chart to help you understand what you're feeling, what it's happening, and what to do next. [...]

    > My take on astrology is that it's a framework that some people can use to live a better life, and it's worked: many of our users thank us for helping repair their relationships, catapult their businesses, or just feel better about who they are.

    In case you're interesting in following this advice and want to dig into the author's credibility and credentials.

    by paxy
  • Circular financing at times of high inflation and geopolitical instability is risky. Company A invests in Company B, B invests in C, and C invests in A. If A is forced to sell its shares in B to raise cash, B's price drops. Now B is worth less, so C now loses money too. Self-reinforcement.
    by novaRom
  • > Increasing interest rates is new information which surprised everybody

    The people I know who pay attention to AI and finance, including both bulls and bears, near-unanimously agreed that AI would cause interest rates to go up.

    Example: "AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years" [1] – their argument (written in 2023) is that if the market expects AGI soon, then interest rates should be high.

    [1] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ngpC5PFAgxHJMhicM/agi-and-th...

    by MichaelDickens
  • A sober analysis, but this is the same story that's been told for years at this point. I haven't been buying new shares, but I'd rather avoid the capital gains tax if I can.
    by delillos
  • The bigger question -- upon selling anything really -- is where to put the proceeds??

    [update] And how does the selling affect your tax liability (of course it does)

    by aanet

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